There is no doubt that climate change is one of the most pressing problems of the last decade. It is not for nothing that one of the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the UN is to combat climate change.
In general, climate is a multi-year weather regime in a certain place. And global climate is an ensemble of regimes that form the meteorological system of atmosphere-ocean-land-cryosphere, which exists for a long period of time. That is, when considering global climate, it should be taken into account that it is closely related not only in terms of climatology, meteorology, but also with the sciences of oceanology, glaciology, geochemistry, geography, geophysics, geology. Therefore, it is worth noting that global climate change has its impact on the development of all sectors in society.
According to the statement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, Geneva), the period from 2015 to 2023 was the warmest of the observation periods. And the value of global air temperature last year (in October) was 1.40 °C (±0.12) above the average value for 1850-1900. Based on observations through October, 2023 was the warmest year in the 174-year observation period. The warmest years before that were 2016, 1.29 (±0.12) °C above the 1850-1900 average, and 2020, 1.27 (±0.13) °C above. According to climate scientists, the cause of the warming is the El Niño phenomenon, i.e. the Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. The El Niño phenomenon occurred in the spring of 2023 and intensified in the summer, and could lead to higher global temperatures in 2024.
Within the framework of global climate change there are also changes in the climate of Kazakhstan. On the territory of all regions of the country there is a steady increase in the average annual air temperature. According to Kazgidromet specialists, the increase in average annual air temperature across the country every 10 years is 0.32 ºC.
The above data represent the values of changes in meteorological quantities, which were actually calculated from the observations of about 8500 meteorological stations located in the northern hemisphere. And how is global climate change forecasting done? The current level of world science cannot predict future climate change in a hundred years; climate scenarios are used to assess climate change.
The International Panel on Climate Change has presented 40 scenarios of human development. According to these scenarios, by 2081-2100, the increase in air temperature on the surface of the Earth: in three of the four scenarios increases by 1.5 ° C, in two scenarios - 2 ° C; in one scenario increases to 4 ° C compared to 1750.
It also estimates future climate change under climate scenarios, taking into account the impact of greenhouse gases. Climate scenarios developed under the IS92a scenario using the GRADS suite for the territory of Kazakhstan were created using 5 first-order models, which showed a high value of average temperature due to their high sensitivity.
Under all scenarios air temperature increase is expected at the end of XXI century. Under the "maximum warming" scenarios (UK89 and CCCM) the warming is 6.9°C and precipitation decreases by 12% or does not change at all. The maximum increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation is projected for the spring period. Under the "minimum warming scenario" (GISS), the temperature increase is 4.5 °C and precipitation increases by 28%. In the other two scenarios, the temperature rises by 4.9 °C and precipitation increases by 7 and 24%. Thus, the GISS scenario is "mild" as a result of a 28% increase in precipitation, and the UK89 scenario is "dry" as a result of maximum warming and reduced precipitation. However, these figures are considered 'high'.
The climate scenarios above assess whether air temperatures are expected to increase and precipitation to decrease, although a number of scientists believe this suggests that warming may not only be an anthropogenic contribution but also a natural change.
Climate change is being discussed at the global community level. The World Climate Summit was held in Dubai last December, and the summit itself at the world level also proved that climate change is important. President Kasym-Jomart Kemelevich Tokayev spoke at the summit and touched upon climate issues in the country. Kazakhstan ratified the Paris Agreement, adopted a strategy to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality, supported world-class initiatives related to "green development". The head of the country also raised the issue of the Aral Sea and directed the necessary funding for measures to save it. Noting the global climate warming to 1.5 0C, he also included measures to combat and adapt to climate change in accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals. Our country chaired the fund, noting that the first thematic summit "Birlik Su" will be organized in 2024, regional climate summit in 2026, as well as invited the world community to international forums.
Climate change is not an issue that is considered only at the state level, but a matter for which each person is responsible as an individual. On issues such as combating climate change, wasting water, preserving ecosystems, everyone can act and contribute.
Aida Munaitpasova,
Senior Lecturer of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ph.
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