Modern forecasting methods: lecture from Kazgidromet experts

Due to the fact that in recent years the requirements to the quality of education are constantly growing, and higher tasks are set in the field of training of highly qualified and competitive specialists, as well as in order to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 17 (Partnership for Sustainable Development), on 21 November 2024 a leadership lecture was held in online format. The speakers were Isabekova J.K. Isabekova, Head of the Department of Long-Term Weather Forecasts of RSE ‘Kazgidromet’, and Symbat Symbat, Engineer of the 1st category of SDPP. The topic of the lecture was ‘Development and regulations for issuing long-term weather forecasts’.

Kazhydromet Centre is the main production unit of RSE ‘Kazhydromet’. The most important task of Kazgidrometcentre is to forecast dangerous and natural hydrometeorological phenomena with maximum advance warning, as well as to warn government agencies, sectors of the economy and the population of the country about these phenomena in order to prevent loss of life and reduce economic damage. The Centre is also engaged in drawing up short, medium and long-term weather forecasts for Kazakhstan.

Isabekova J.K. told about the activity of the Long-Term Weather Forecast Department, about the development and regulations for issuing long-term forecasts. Special attention was paid to modern methods of long-term forecasts, which are based on the method of year-analog, numerical hydrodynamic models of 13 world prognostic centres, products of hydrodynamic models of the Regional North-Eurasian Climate Centre, the main geophysical observatory and Hydrometcentre of Russia. Engineer of 1 category of UDPP Өser Symbat noted that the department issues forecasts for a decade, month, season, warm half-year (April - October) and cold half-year (November - March).

During the lecture, students and teachers asked questions, which indicated a high level of interest in the topic. There was also a suggestion that the department could use the software ‘ARM forecaster-long-term forecaster’ for educational purposes. In addition, Kazhydromet specialists and faculty members exchanged views on scientific directions in the field of climate research and meteorological forecasts.