New approaches in the use of ARM ‘Forecaster-Long-Term Forecaster’ for monthly weather forecasts. - Lecture of the leading engineer of the Scientific and Technical Centre for Environmental Monitoring and Ecology of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Tsepelev V. Yu.

03.12.2024 at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology in cooperation with the department of long-term weather forecasts RSE ‘Kazhydromet’ was held a leadership lecture, a leading engineer of the scientific and technical centre for environmental monitoring and ecology of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, candidate of geographical sciences, Tsepelev Valery Yurievich on the topic: New approaches in the use of ARM ‘Forecaster-Long-term’ for the preparation of weather forecasts for the month.

The lecture opened with an overview of the ‘Synoptik-Dolgolgostrochnik’ (TDF) information-computer system developed in 2000. The main objectives of the system are to automate long-term weather forecasts, statistical processing of large amounts of data, and visualisation of prognostic and historical materials. The Synoptik-Dolgolgostochnik information-computing system implements a number of forecasting techniques, including the Wangenheim-Gears method and the Multanovsky-Pagava method, which allows forecasters to forecast atmospheric phenomena more efficiently.

The speaker paid special attention to the concept of ensemble forecasting, which uses a group of forecasts calculated under different modelling conditions. This allows estimating the probability of different scenarios of atmospheric processes. Thus, the students gained an understanding of the importance of considering uncertainty in meteorological forecasts, especially when deciding on precautionary measures.

The lecture was also accompanied by examples of data visualisations where students could see how TDF helps in presenting ensemble forecasts. Different types of maps were shown, including mean values, ensemble spread, and probability of hazard events. The visualisation played a key role in understanding the range of information that forecasters provide to users to facilitate decision making.

The lecture concluded with a discussion of the importance of the ensemble approach in a global context, noting its widespread application and support from the World Meteorological Organisation. The students were active in the discussions and asked many questions about the prospects for the use of technology in meteorology.

The event provided an opportunity for students not only to deepen their knowledge but also to be inspired for future work in atmospheric sciences. The lecture was an important step in training new specialists capable of effectively using modern weather forecasting tools.